TL;DR

This was a project management exercise where I re-estimated a realistic software project using COCOMO II, a bottom-up cost and schedule estimation model.

What started as a 3-month plan turned into a 28.6-month estimate once learning curves, risk, reliability, and schedule compression were accounted for.

Same scope. Same team. Very different outcome.

The Numbers

Original Plan

COCOMO II Estimate

Below is the full breakdown of how the estimate was built, including assumptions, drivers, and why the numbers changed so dramatically.

Full COCOMO II Analysis and Cost Model